Sterling Shepard

WR·

7 graded seasons·46.6 average·62.6 best (2017)

36.2

2025 grade· 22 pct

Career grade trend

2025 WR

22th percentile among qualified WRs

z = -0.49

confidence 51%

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	2.4%	20th	−5%	42 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	-0.002	21st	35%	51 targets
Separation	3.43 yd	83rd	10%	51 targets
Success / target	49.0%	41st	5%	51 targets
Target earn rate	12.7%	11th	15%	403 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	-1.22	30th	27%	36 receptions

21th percentile among qualified WRs

z = -0.51

confidence 50%

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	5.7%	60th	−5%	35 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	+0.268	46th	35%	50 targets
Separation	2.99 yd	52nd	10%	50 targets
Success / target	50.0%	43rd	5%	50 targets
Target earn rate	12.4%	10th	15%	403 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	-1.89	18th	27%	30 receptions

Below volume threshold — grade shown for reference

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	12.5%	93rd	−5%	16 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	-0.130	15th	35%	24 targets
Separation	2.48 yd	29th	10%	24 targets
Success / target	29.2%	3rd	5%	24 targets
Target earn rate	28.2%	63rd	15%	85 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	-0.76	50th	27%	13 receptions

Below volume threshold — grade shown for reference

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	—	—	−5%	0 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	+0.036	25th	35%	38 targets
Separation	2.57 yd	32nd	10%	38 targets
Success / target	42.1%	17th	5%	38 targets
Target earn rate	19.0%	43rd	15%	200 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	-1.22	32nd	27%	25 receptions

38th percentile among qualified WRs

z = -0.21

confidence 88%

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	—	—	−5%	0 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	+0.297	47th	35%	88 targets
Separation	3.11 yd	68th	10%	88 targets
Success / target	56.8%	65th	5%	88 targets
Target earn rate	23.8%	78th	15%	370 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	-1.57	10th	27%	63 receptions

42th percentile among qualified WRs

z = -0.21

confidence 80%

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	—	—	−5%	0 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	+0.107	22nd	35%	80 targets
Separation	3.13 yd	81st	10%	80 targets
Success / target	55.0%	69th	5%	80 targets
Target earn rate	25.0%	79th	15%	320 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	-1.20	26th	27%	53 receptions

71th percentile among qualified WRs

z = +0.30

confidence 100%

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	—	—	−5%	0 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	+0.329	61st	35%	103 targets
Separation	3.13 yd	78th	10%	103 targets
Success / target	49.5%	37th	5%	103 targets
Target earn rate	19.1%	51st	15%	538 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	+0.13	68th	27%	60 receptions

78th percentile among qualified WRs

z = +0.45

confidence 74%

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	—	—	−5%	0 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	+0.335	75th	35%	74 targets
Separation	2.41 yd	29th	10%	74 targets
Success / target	56.8%	88th	5%	74 targets
Target earn rate	18.0%	41st	15%	410 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	+0.54	80th	27%	52 receptions

38th percentile among qualified WRs

z = -0.17

confidence 100%

Stat	Value	Percentile	Weight	Sample
Drop rate	—	—	−5%	0 catchable balls
Rec EPA / tgt	+0.197	47th	35%	104 targets
Separation	2.73 yd	55th	10%	104 targets
Success / target	48.1%	39th	5%	104 targets
Target earn rate	18.4%	45th	15%	565 team pass attempts
YAC / rec vs exp	-0.70	33rd	27%	59 receptions